Forex Trading Strategies: Intraday Trading The Forex Market - How and Why?
Although FOREX traders are generally aware of the importance of daily economic calendars, in order to be profitable, they must go further and understand the difference between surprise and expected.
In order to grasp these concepts, you have to know that this is a game between the financial authorities and the community of analysts, trying to predict the numbers.
While natural disasters, accidents and political moves cannot be expected and therefore they are always considered as surprise news, the economic calendar is well known by the investment community.
In a highly speculative investment environment like the FOREX market, the most important volatility creator is the economic calendar.
Indicators like GDP (Gross Domestic Product), CPI (Consumer Price Index), PPI (Producer Price Index), Unemployment Rate, Interest Rate, Retail Sales and Trade Balance are widely followed and evaluated.
Prior to each report, estimates are published and traders try to position themselves according to what the numbers are expected to be.
These estimates will set the tone and drive the market prior to the publication of each report.
Here comes a rule you have to integrate into your trading, the market discounts every piece of information. Simply stated, the price is the result of all that is known and expected by the investment community.
Even if the report indicates a good economic result, if this has been anticipated through the estimates, the market will not move much, as it already discounted this information early in the process.
However, if the economic announcement does not come in line with the expectations, then we have the so-called surprise reports. The investment community quickly tries to digest and adapt to the new expectations and in doing so, it drives the market in the direction of the surprise news.
Professional FOREX operators avoid having opened positions prior to key economic reports. They prepare trading plans for both, the expected as well as the surprise scenarios and act upon what is published, consequently limiting their risk exposure.
Always remember, only surprise news will move the market. Even if the report shows a strong economic sector, if the actual numbers are in line with the analysts' expectations, the market has already absorbed and discounted the numbers, therefore it will not move much.
Bogdan Vasile
www.forex-arena.com
Mr. VASILE is the founder and President of VORTEX Capital Management, a seasoned FOREX trader, member of the Securities & Investment Institute in London and author of the revolutionary SyncronDec™ training program used in his professional FOREX course. He is also the owner of http://www.forex-arena.com, a professional website, dedicated to FOREX analysis and education
http://www.1-forex.com/FX/1
Online Forex Trading & Its Trend Patterns
Forex trading is a great option for those who want a great income from home or anywhere else. But in order to be a successful forex trader you need to learn the basics of the currency markets and familiarize yourself with the world of trading. One of the first things you will notice as you start analyzing forex charts is that the currency markets often display's some very familiar patterns of price movements. Once a clear pattern is established, it becomes the most probable course of future price action until the market changes.
Considering this, it’s important that you identify and understand that there exist two types of markets; these are: trending and trend-less markets. Each market type has pretty clear and specific patterns which you will alsonotice over time.
Trending Markets are characterized by steady and elongated price movements with less than a 45 degree angel with occasional pauses, profit taking, or resting periods.
But even in trending markets you can notice the existence of other two important patterns. These are:
- Uptrends - A pattern of higher highs and higher lows.
- Downtrends - A pattern of lower lows and lower highs.
In the case of Trend-less markets, the main characteristic is the erratic price movements which are often steep ( greater than 45 -degree angle ) and that cannot be sustained therefore they must reverse in a short period of time. Although the movements can move many points in a short period of time, they often result in very little net price movement over time.
In Trend-less markets you can also distinguish tow main patterns:
- Choppy - An erratic pattern of higher highs and lower lows.
- Sideways - A narrow pattern of lower highs and higher lows.
While markets with an up-trend and down-trend behavior can offer generally excellent trading results, choppy markets often create stop outs, while sideways markets produce for little in either direction making them hard to trade, hence making it hard to make any significative profit during these trend-less periods.
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Forex Trading & The Proper Hours To Win
If you want to find an appreciable number of profitable trades when trading Forex you need to enter the forex market at the best period of time. This means you should enter when the activity, the volume of transactions, is the highest. All experienced traders focus on the hours when the currency markets tend to make their biggest moves, i.e., during the big market overlaps, which therefore, are usually the best times to trade.
Forex markets are open worldwide with the following schedule:
* New York Market trade times: 8am-4pm EST
* London Market trade times: 2am-12Noon EST
* Great Britain Market trade times: 3am-11am EST
* Tokyo Market trade times: 8pm-4am EST
* Australia Market trade times: 7pm-3am EST
Forex markets have also these timing chraceristics:
* Forex Trading begins in New Zealand, followed by Australia, Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and America
* The US & UK account for more than 50% of the market transactions
* Forex Major markets: London, New York, Tokyo
* Nearly two-thirds of NY activity occurs in the morning hours while European markets are open.
From this timing facts, it is evident that at any given time, somebody somewhere in the world is buying and selling currencies. As one market closes a different market opens. Business hours overlap, and the exchange continues as day becomes night and night becomes day.
The great liquidity of Forex, combined with the fact that's traded 5.5 days a week around the world, offers every trader an exceptional independence and choices to trade Forex when you want to and not when the market wants you to do it. It’s a facts that trades always develop with relatively the same frequency, regardless of time. As long as the Forex market is open, there is about the same probability that you will find a trade, whenever your look for it.
Forex market volume of transactions remains high during the whole day, but peaks highest when the Asian market(including Australia & New Zealand), the European market and the U.S. market are open simultaneously. And these are the best trading hours you must target in order to find the highest possible amount of profitable trades.
During each trading day, the total Forex “volume” is determined by the number of markets that are open and the times each of these markets overlap one another.
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Bollinger Bands & Fibonacci Retracements In Forex
Recently Forex trading has become one of the most looked after occupations that will allow you to earn a living from home or anywhere else. If you are really considering entering the forex trading world you must, by all means, learn and understand a number of indicators that will lend you a big hand on predicting with a high probability the directions forex markets may take as you analyze the price charts for any currency pair you are trading at the moment. Two of these great indicators are: “Bollinger Bands” and “Fibonacci Retracements”.
“Fibonacci retracement levels” are based on a sequence of numbers discovered by the noted mathematician Leonardo da Pisa in Italy. These numbers describe cycles found throughout nature and when applied to technical analysis can be used to find pullbacks in the currency market.
“Fibonacci retracement levels” are a quite effective way “to see the future” (at least in the world of forex markets), with this I mean that it involves anticipating changes in trends as prices near the levels indicated by the Fibonacci ratios. After a significant price move (either up or down), prices will often retrace a significant portion of the original move. As prices retrace, support and resistance levels often occur at or near the “Fibonacci Retracement levels” (See my other articles on “Fibonacci trading” for more details about this).
The interpretation given to “Bollinger Bands” is that prices tend to stay within the space formed by the tracings of the upper and lower bands. The distinctive characteristic of “Bollinger Bands” is that the spacing between the bands varies based on the volatility of the prices. During periods of high volatility, the bands widen to become more forgiving. During periods of low volatility, the bands narrow to contain currency prices. The common use is that the bands are plotted two standard deviations above and below a simple moving average. They indicate a "sell" when prices are above the moving average and a "buy" when prices are below it. The bands are used by some forex traders in conjunction with other analyses, including RSI, MACD, CCI, and Rate of Change.
All successful Forex Traders develop their own System. Learn how.
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