Contrarian Strategies: Selecting Small Capitalization Stocks

INTRODUCTION

Contrarian investors are often ridiculed by the rest of the investment community for their stubborn, illogical view on the stock market. When everyone else is running for the sidelines, contrarians are buying and when the rest of Wall Street is bidding up everything with a ticker symbol, contrarians are yelling Sell, Sell, Sell! As unreasonable as that behavior might seem, one has to ask what is logical about the mainstream viewpoint. Is it logical that a stock should become a better purchase as it becomes more expensive? Would you use that model to buy a car or a house?

CONTRARIAN STRATEGIES DEFINED

Those who follow contrarian investing strategies believe they bring much needed rationality to the otherwise emotional and temperamental market. To prove the rationality of their strategies, contrarians simply point to their success. For example, economists Werner DeBondt and Richard Thaler showed in a recent study that contrarian strategies that buy stocks with low long-term returns and sell those with high returns earn abnormal profits over a holding period ranging from three to five years. (1) Additionally, several recent papers have demonstrated that long-term contrarian strategies are not significantly riskier than average. (2)

Unfortunately, other than arguing that they are the most rational of investors, contrarians appear to have little agreement in defining their strategies. All contrarians believe they are true follows of the age old investment philosophy of "buying low and selling high." However, just how they identify low and high is open to considerable discussion.

CONTRARIANS PAST AND PRESENT

When asked how he became so wealthy, Meyer Rothschild, a German banker and patriarch of the legendary House of Rothschild, attributed his success to buying when "there was blood in the streets." The eminent financier said he waited for real panic to manifest before he moved. For the elder Rothschild, who lived through the Napoleonic wars, his reference to blood may have been as literal as it was figurative.

In this paper, we take a look at the stubborn contrarian and compare his viewpoint to conventional investing methods. We also discuss contrarian strategies for investing in small capitalization companies.

Thankfully, contrarian principals apply even without bodily harm. One quite famous and much more contemporary contrarian is Warren Buffet, founder of the Berkshire Hathaway investment company. Buffet is a "marshmallow" in comparison to Rothschild, but his success is no less impressive. Buffet has guided his fund to the highest share price in the U.S. stock market by looking for dividends among out of favor stocks. He has opined that he does not believe in the price/earnings multiple. Interestingly, Berkshire shares trade among the highest price/earnings multiples in the market, bid up by the cult-like following Buffet has accumulated.

George Soros, currently chairman of Soros Fund Management, LLC, is another closely-watched investor. Soros does not consider himself a contrarian investor, but his track record suggests he has a penchant for betting against the market. In 1970, Soros started the Quantum Fund with Jim Rogers, a contrarian investor-philosopher from Hungary. Soros is famous for going short the British pound and earning $1 billion in a single day in 1992, now known as Britain's Black Wednesday.

Anyone interested in the contrarian viewpoint might find Jim Rogers' book, Adventure Capitalist - The Ultimate Investor's Road Trip, an interesting read. Rogers, who always wore a bow tie at the office, based the book on his casual drive through a hundred-plus countries around the world between 2000 and 2003. The book is not a fast read, but Rogers tosses aside conventional thinking and gives a thumbs-down to investing in Russia and India. Instead, he picks China, Uruguay and Mongolia as preferred alternatives.

The Less-Than-Famous- or Astonishingly-Rich

Jim Rogers can afford to thumb his nose at convention. He started out as an immigrant with a few hundred dollars in his pocket and retired in his late thirties with billions. Not every contrarian investor becomes so wildly wealthy, but they do meet with success. For example, we found two online advisors for individuals, InvestmentU.com and GetFolio.com, which both tout strong performance track records that beat market benchmarks.

The number of contrarian funds proliferated in the U.S. in the mid-1990s. In 1996, Carl Marker, founder of IMS Capital Management, launched his own no-load mutual fund. Marker positioned the IMS Capital Value Fund as a value-oriented, contrarian fund focusing on Fortune 500 companies. Likewise Robertson Stephens started its Contrarian Fund in the mid-1990s. The popularity of the approach has not waned. Nor is it limited to U.S. funds. Tata Mutual Funds based in Mumbai, India launched their Tata Contra Fund in July 2005. They plan to invest in fundamentally strong companies using a contrarian approach to stock selection.

Lighthouse Opportunity Fund, which is managed by Lighthouse Capital in Houston, was once known as Lighthouse Contrarian Fund but the managers found that the word "contrarian" is commonly misinterpreted or is unfamiliar to investors. It was a change in name only and the fund managers continue to use what they describe as "contrarian thinking" by "looking in areas out of favor with the investing public." The fund still invests in undervalued companies that are technically aggressive, fiscally conservative and globally competitive.

Nonetheless, we found a number of funds using contrarian management strategies and not afraid to make it known. David Decker manages the Janus Contrarian Fund by investing "where others are not." Since inception in 2000, the fund has earned 8.1%. The Intrepid Contrarian Fund of industry giant JP Morgan has been a little more successful in its two-year history, returning just over 20% after sales charges.

CONTRARIAN STRATEGIES TO SELECT SMALL-CAP STOCKS

Widely accepted thinking in the capital markets is the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which holds that the market prices of public companies are reflective of all information and are therefore efficient representations of value. Security prices revert back to the mean as soon as public information becomes available.

We certainly do not disagree with the theory in principal. Yet we know that while the market may be perfect, communications and financial processes are not. Relevant financial information appears slow to diffuse into the marketplace for those companies with no research coverage, little sponsorship by investment bankers, or limited ownership by professional investors. Since these are often the circumstances for smaller companies, we believe the road to price efficiency is somewhat circuitous in the small-cap sector. Indeed, recent studies have shown that share prices will reflect new information more rapidly as the number of informed investors increases. (3) These studies show there is a delayed reaction to both common and firm-specific information among small firms, whereas large firms evidence more timely reaction. Analyst coverage in particular appears important in adjusting stock prices to new information. (4)

Since complete information diffusion is reached at a much slower pace for the smaller company, we believe the contrarian investor has time in the small-cap sector to ply his "stubborn, illogical" style. Indeed, empirical evidence has shown that contrarian portfolio returns are stronger for firms which have a lower rate of information diffusion. One recent study using NYSE and AMEX listed securities found that the average return difference between contrarian portfolios in the smallest and the largest capitalization quintile stocks was 0.46% per month. (5)

Out of Favor Stocks

The contrarian is interested in stocks that the consensus does not wish to own. The stocks may appear relatively inexpensive based on a discount to its peer group or the market average. Harry Domash's stock selection service, WinningInvesting.com, uses the number of analysts' buy/sell ratings as an indicator of whether a stock is in or out of favor as an alternative to the traditional valuation ratios.

Capitalizing on Overreaction

Many investors believe the stock market consistently overreacts to new information, resulting in dramatic price reversals. Some contrarians believe they can make substantial profits in the short-term by buying the apparent losers and selling winners. Investors using this approach may find helpful the book Stock Market Overreaction and Fundamental Valuation by Matthias Kulpmann. The book investigates evidence of reversals in the cross section of stock returns. Kulpmann finds that reversals in stock returns are paralleled by movements in fundamentals.

Avoiding the Crowd

While Meyer Rothschild took advantage of the mistakes or misfortunes of the crowd, modern day contrarians find reward in simply avoiding the crowd. John Summa has written a moderately entertaining how-to book for such contrarians called Trading Against the Crowd - Profiting from Fear & Greed in Stock, Futures, and Options Markets. Summa puts crowd psychology to use in spelling out a variety of practical trading strategies such as Squeeze Play I and II, Tsunami Sentiment Wave, and the Fourth Estate. (The names are the entertaining part.)

The Art of Contrary Thinking by Humphrey Neill is another instructive volume on investor sentiment. Neill described "the crowd" as most enthusiastic and optimistic when it should be cautious and prudent and fearful when it should be bold. He uses the famous Tulipmania case in late 16th Century Holland as an example of what happens when everyone thinks alike, i.e. behaves according to the crowd. Neill advocates that the successful investor capitalizes on knowledge of crowd behavior.

Deep Value

Perhaps a company looks expensive to the rest of the market based on earnings or return on capital. Yet a contrarian finds the company inexpensive on an absolute basis, trading at a discount to private market value. The deep-value contrarian looks beyond the obvious to the root cause of earnings weakness to determine if it is temporary condition and likely to reverse.

CONCLUSION

The contrarian investment style is heavily dependent upon intensive research that goes beyond the summary data provided by financial services or developed internally by summarizing company reported financial information. Investigating a possible investment involves communicating directly with company management, suppliers and customers to determine the company's competitive position. Relative to other investment strategies, it may be time consuming to initiate a position. Yet where pricing inefficiencies correct more slowly, contrarian investors have the time to complete the investigation that others are unwilling to undertake. We believe this makes the contrarian's "stubborn and illogical" approach particularly effective in the small-cap sector.

Debra Fiakas, CFA

www.crystalequityresearch.com

NOTES

(1) De Bondt, Werner F.M., and Richard Thaler, "Further Evidence on Investor Over-reaction and Stock Market Seasonality," Journal of Finance, 1987. Vol. 42, pp. 557-581.

(2) Lakonishok, Joseph, Andrei Shleifer, and Robert Vishny, "Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation and Risk," Journal of Finance, 1994. Vol. 56, pp. 699-720.

MacKinlay, A. Craig, "Multifactor Models do not Explain Deviations from the CAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, 1995. Vol. 38, pp. 3-28.

Daniel, Kent D., "Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross-Sectional Variation in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, 1997. Vol 52, pp. 1-33.

(3) Holden, Craig W., and Avandihar Subrahmanyam, "News Events, Information Acquisition, and Serial Correlation," Journal of Business, 2002. Vol. 75, pp. 247-270.

Foster, F.D. and S. Viswananthan, "The Effect of Public Information and Competition on Trading Volume and Price Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, 1993. Vol. 6, pp. 23-56.

(4) Brennan, Michael J., Narasimhan Jegadeesh, and Bhaskaran Swaminanthan, "Investment Analysis and the Adjustment of Stock Prices to Common Information," Review of Financial Studies, 1993. Vol. 6, pp. 799-824.

(5) Yalcin, Atakan. "Gradual Information Diffusion and Contrarian Strategies," Koc University, College of Administrative Sciences and Economics. February 2003.

Debra Fiakas, CFA is a seasoned investment professional with a diversified and successful track record. Her decade-plus career includes experience in all aspects of the equity capital markets with particular emphasis on emerging growth companies . Ms. Fiakas is the managing member of Crystal Equity Research, a Registered Investment Advisor in the State of New York. Additional formation is available at the firm's web site at WWW.CRYSTALEQUITYRESEARCH.COM

Using Fundamental Analysis for Trading Stocks

Fundamental analysis, the study of profits, revenue, income, assets, etc. etc. It was the mainstay of stock market investing for decades and decades. Finding a diamond in the rough, was what investors looked for, it is what mutual fund managers use today as their main tool. It is what is done by hundreds, if not thousands of brokerage houses, stock market investor services, and mutual fund managers every day of their lives. Numbers poured over, fed into software programs, then analyzed again. So much so that there is not one single fundamental analysis surprise left to be found in large cap stocks. That is so fundamental to the success of our large cap philosophy (www.livingonlargecaps.blogspot.com) that it bears repeating again. There is nothing new to be learned in fundamental analysis of large cap stocks. Everything is already known. I suppose we should thank the countless analysts who put in countless hours fundamentally analyzing the numbers for us so we don't have to. Because without them, we would have no beginning point. So is that to say fundamental analysis has a purpose? Of course it does. Do we use it? You bet. It is one of the first things we do use. We use in it screens, and we also use analyst's recommendations that are based largely on fundamental analysis. We buy no stock without corroboration of analyst's reports, and many of our screens have an analyst's reports factor to them. So in a sense fundamental analysis is THE most important factor of our selecting stocks. Without a good report from fundamental folks, we don't look any further at the stock. We know stock analysts also have opinions about where the market is heading, and about the sectors as well. We like that too. We want to be where the action is. An exceptional fundamental stock will not move, if people are not focusing on it. And there is the rub with fundamental analysis, and that is why fundamentalist either make lousy traders or don't believe in trading. They are long term investors, philosophically superior to technicians in their way of thought. But stocks only move if they are the focus of traders. (traders for our purposes could be mid-term speculators as well, which frankly is probably where we fit in.) So reading an analyst report, or with large caps you get the benefit of a pool of analyst's reports, gives you an idea whether or not the stock will be moving in the near future (3-6 months.) A stock that is rated a hold is likely not to do much of anything rather than track the market or the sector. A stock that is rated a sell, likely has already tanked. But a stock that is rated a buy, is worthy of a technical look. Do we analyze rates of growth, % of debt, stuff like that? Nope, it has already been done. Our job is to find the hot sectors, and the hot large cap stocks in that sector. And then take those and see if they are poised to move.. Long term moves of an individual stock or the market in whole is a process of thought. But every wiggle and waggle along the way is a process of emotion. A stock poised to rise, based on solid fundamental analysis also needs to have emotion behind it, to actually rise in our time frame. We are not interested in holding a stock with 15% growth rates for a year to see if that results in a 15% stock price increase. The fact of the matter is that stock is going to rise and/or fall 15% in a year's time no matter what. But if we know that it has received high marks for it's fundamentals, and then look at its charts and see technically it is also very healthy then we have something. A stock that does not fair well through analyst's reports is not even worhty of our looking at its' chart. There are so many options in large cap stocks that we want EVERY advantage we can get. We want every selection to be a winner. When your average trade only nets you 4%, you cannot afford to be wrong.

CT Larsen has been trading stocks since 1990. Now trading large cap stocks exclusively. He has recorded three straight years of greater than 50% annual returns. You can read his blog at http://livingonlargecaps.blogspot.com

PAPER STOCKS FOR POSTCARDS

One of the most important factors in postcard printing aside from the design is the papers stocks. The paper can really make a big difference especially for postcards that have a very simple theme. The paper stock can provide the postcards with that extra flare.

The paper stock used for commercial postcard printing is divided into two categories the coated and the uncoated. Under these categories are sub categories that are determined by means of weight and these are the text and then the cover stock. The text stock pertains to the lighter weight paper used usually for the inside or the body of a book or a catalog and much more expensive than the cover weight paper. On the other hand, cover stock is heavier but more durable and commonly used for outside covering of books or catalogs and has a chic look and feel to it.

In terms of the coated paper stock options for postcards, there are two options the gloss and the matte stock which are both coated papers. The gloss paper stocks are commonly used for brochures, flyers and the likes. Likewise, it is also used for full color printing projects like full color photographs, full color images as well as some graphics that requires crisp resolutions for a more realistic effect. The matte stock on the other hand is much preferred for promotional materials that requires dull finish.

In creating postcards multi-page paper stocks may also be employed as an option. The multi-page paper stocks are best for body or text pages for books which are often times printed in only one color on a white offset stock paper. For heavy ink with many black and white photographs coverage requires 60# white offset text. The choice on the weight of the stock to be used depends on the purpose like for self-cover books the usual weight used are 50#, 60# and 70# where offset text are usually used. Nevertheless, for perfect hard bound books with above 50 to 80 pages requires a much heavier offset stock. Likewise for saddle stitched books a more hard-wearing offset stock is much preferred like a 67# white vellum offset cover.

If you just can't decide on the type of paper stock to use consult your chosen full color postcard printing provider to help you make the correct choice. It is always best to seek out the advice of expert providers remember that mistakes in the choice of paper stock may lead to poor quality of output.

For suggestions and comments about the article kindly visit Cheap Postcard Printing Services

Jinky C. Mesias is a graduate of Bachelor of Science in Business Administration Major in Management. She is at present an Associate Manager of a Life Insurance Corporation and a freelance writer

Advantages of Trading FOREX over Stocks and Commodities

There are many advantages to Trading FOREX as your main income generator. We can start by something that may be worrying many already."Do I need a Diploma or Certification to trade the FOREX?" The answer is NO: When attempting to make more profit than losses on the fluctuation of exchange rates between major currencies(i.e.,Trading the FOREX), nobody is going to ask you for a diploma, a formal license or verify the amount of hours you've spent studying the Foreign exchange market and banking industry. All you need is the proper training.

But this is not the only advantage you get when trading FOREX, compared to other ways of investment and speculation; i.e. Stocks and Commodities. You have a whole bunch of advantages over these other options that will be enumerated in the following paragraphs.

The Main Benefits of Trading the FX Spot Market:

1): FOREX is the largest financial market in the world.

With a daily trading volume of over $1.5 trillion, the spot FOREX market can absorb trading sizes that dwarf the capacity of any other market. In fact, when compared with the $50 billion daily market for equities or the $30 billion futures market, it becomes quickly apparent this gives you, and millions of other FOREX traders, almost infinite trading liquidity and flexibility.

2): FOREX is a TRUE 24-hour market.

The FOREX Market never sleeps. Trading positions can be entered and exited at any moment - around the globe, around the clock, six days a week. There is no waiting for an opening bell as in the case of trading stocks. It is a 24-hour, continuous electronic (ONLINE) currency exchange that never closes. This is very desirable for you if you want to trade on a part-time basis, because you can choose when you want to trade: morning, noon or night.

3): There is never a Bear Market in FOREX.

You can have access to a seamless, mutually-inclusive (two-way) exchange of currencies. Meaning, because currencies trade in "pairs" (for example, US dollar vs. yen or US dollar vs. Swiss franc), one side of every currency pair (for example, USD/JPY - JPY = YEN) is constantly moving in relation to the other. Thus, when you buy a particular currency, you are actually simultaneously selling the other currency in that particular pair. As the market moves, one of the currencies will increase in value versus the other. Of course, it is up to you to choose the correct currency to be long or short. Since currency trading always involves buying one currency and selling another, there is no structural bias to the market. This means you have equal potential to profit in both a rising or falling market.

4): High Leverage - up to 200:1 Leverage.

You are permitted to trade foreign currencies on a highly leveraged basis - up to 200 times your investment with some brokers. This is primarily attributed to the higher levels of liquidity within the currency markets. Standard 100,000-unit currency lots can be traded with as little as 1% margin, or $1,000. Mini FX accounts are permitted to trade with just 0.5% margin -- in other words, just $50 allows you to control a 10,000-unit currency position. Futures traders, who are accustomed to margin requirements generally equal to 5%-8% of the contract value, will immediately recognize that the FOREX market provides much greater leverage, and for stock traders, who must post at least 50% margin, there is no comparison. If you are looking for an efficient use of trading capital, this is the answer.

5): Price Movements Are Highly Predictable.

Although currency prices in the FX market may be volatile, they generally repeat themselves in relatively predictable cycles, creating trends. The strong trends that foreign currencies develop are a significant advantage for traders who use the "technical" methods and strategies taught at a number of sources.

Unlike stocks, currencies rarely spend much time in tight trading ranges and have the tendency to develop strong trends. Over 80% of volume is speculative in nature and, as a result, the market frequently overshoots and then corrects itself. As a technically-trained trader, you can easily identify new trends and breakouts, which provide for multiple opportunities to enter and exit positions.

6:) Commission-free Trading and Low Transaction Cost

When you trade FOREX, through one of our recommended brokers (this info is in our private resources section), you'll do it totally commission-free! These brokers don't charge commissions to trade or to maintain an account, and that goes for all clients trading the FOREX through them, regardless of your account balance or trading volume. Even Mini FX traders can buy and sell currencies online, commission-free.

What about trading fees? There are none of the usual fees to which futures and equity traders are accustomed - no exchange or clearing fees, no N_F_A or S_E_C fees. Because currencies trade over-the-counter (OTC), via a global electronic network -- in FOREX, what you see is what you get, allowing you to make quick decisions on your trades without having to worry or account for fees that may affect your profit/loss or slippage.

In the equities markets, you must pay both a commission and exchange fees. The over-the-counter structure of the FX market eliminates exchange and clearing fees, which in turn lowers transaction costs.

So, if a FOREX broker don't charge commissions, how do they make money? Like all traded financial products, over-the- counter currency trading involves a bid/ask spread, which represents the prices at which your counterparty is willing to trade. Because the currency market offers round-the-clock liquidity, you receive tight, competitive spreads both intra-day and night. Stock traders can be more vulnerable to liquidity risk and typically receive wider trading spreads, especially during after-hours trading.

7): Instantaneous Order Execution and Market Transparency.

Market transparency is highly desired in any trading environment. The greater the market transparency, the more efficient the market becomes. Unlike other markets where transparency is compromised (like in the Enron scandal), FOREX markets are highly transparent (i.e., analyzing countries, and having access to real-time research / news, is easier than companies).

Because of this transparency, as an FX trader, you will be able to exercise risk management strategies in accordance to the proper fundamental and technical indicators.

The Forex market offers the highest level of market transparency out of all the financial markets. Because of this, order execution and fill confirmation usually occur in just 1-2 seconds. Markets that do not offer executable prices and force traders to absorb slippage obviously compromise the trader's profit potential considerably.

In the forex world, order execution is all-electronic and because you'll be trading via an Internet-based platform, instantaneous execution is routine. There are no exchanges, no traditional open-outcry pits, no floor brokers, and consequently, no delays

Adrian Pablo; Forex trader and freelance writer.

http://www.1-forex.com

Portfolio Building Strategies for Stocks

Building a portfolio of stocks is not unlike building a professional basketball team. You have to balance your supposed superstars with a quality supporting cast, and you cannot overload in one area. Balance, balance, balance. Especially if you are like yours truly living off of your portfolio, wild fluctuations, will kill your psyche, and your ability to operate in a logical fashion. For us a stock portfolio consists of around 10 holdings. For those of you who regularly trade along with us at http://www.livingonlargecaps.blogspot.com, you know that our holdings last for around four weeks. But even if you hold stocks long term, or day trade, the philosophy of portfolio building remains unchanged. The basketball analogy works if you think about how many Michael Jordans you really need on one team, the answer of course is one. At any given time, the stock market will have a few hot sectors. Your superstars come from these sectors, however, you can't overload your portfolio with stocks from these sectors because, when they fall out of favor, which they often due without warning, your portfolio will skid along with them. So what you need is a supporting cast to prop up your superstar, when the game goes against them. Your supporting cast likely will shine when your superstars are crashing, they need to be complementary. An example that is relevant right now is the energy sector, and more precisely oil. Oil stocks have had a grand bull market, while the overall stock market is treading water, the oil sector has been hot. However, there have been corrections along the way. And one of these days, it will be more than a correction, it will be a trend reversal. It is very expensive to try to guess the trend reversal, as you will be wrong along the way many, many times. Especially in a pure sector like oil. The factors that lead to a bull market in oil are easily identifiable, and the news coming out is either bullish or bearish, it really needs very little interpretation. Now take a sector like insurance. On first glance the recent hurricanes should be bearish for insurance. However, insurance also profits from favorable monetary policy and interest rates curves. It is also a defensive sector so traders will buy insurance when they are worried about future of the stock market. In other words, there are many factors that go into an insurance sector bull market. And to complicate it even further, insurance companies do not move in lock step fashion nearly as efficiently as pure industries like oil. Oil stocks are like a well regimented military unit. Back to our example of portfolio building, the oil sector's bull market, has been interrupted along the way. If you have been 100% in oil stocks you actually would have done very well, however, your portfolio would have had a tumultuous ride. A correction can last for up to two weeks, and in that time your portfolio might have correct up to 15%, a nail biting, ulcer inducing, dip in your net worth. However, cushioning your oil stocks with say a stock that upticks when the oil sector is going bearish on us, would have resulted in a smoothing effect on your portfolio, and lessened those nail biting periods filled with self-doubt, when you ask why you even bother trading stocks, and that nine to five job suddenly looks comforting. Some quick and fast rules we follow, is no more than two holdings at any one time in related sectors.. No more than 80% of our holdings are to be longs, unless some longs actually go counter to the current trend. Such as oil stocks, which actually are counter to the bulk of the market. But if you have eight longs in say, insurance, banking, retail, heavy machinery, technology, etc., then you must have two shorts,. You will be surprised the smoothing effect that the counter holdings provide. If you check your portfolio daily, and let the gyrations effect your mood, it is important for clarity of thought if nothing else. Always, always let the charts decide, arm chair quarterbacking is expensive. Like guessing a trend reversal, let the charts dictate and you trade accordingly. In fact, I go so far as saying having an opinion is expensive. I had thought oil was wildly over bought and highly speculative for a long, long time. But the charts kept looking good, so my opinion doesn't really matter, only the facts displayed in the charts do. And yes, sometimes they are wrong, which is yet another reason to diversify

CT Larsen has been trading stocks since 1990. Now trading large cap stocks exclusively. He has recorded three straight years of greater than 50% annual returns. You can read his blog at http://livingonlargecaps.blogspot.com

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